Life after the referendum- What lies ahead for Sudan

Friday, January 14, 2011

Pretoria - This week, after decades of war and genocide, Southern Sudanese are lining up in droves to vote on a referendum that will determine whether the people of South Sudan want to remain part of one country or to become a separate state.

A possible split vote, which is an implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) which was signed in January 2005, will make Sudan the first African country to be split along cultural, religious and economic lines.

BuaNews spoke to political analysts about the direction the country is taking and life after the referendum.

Voting, say analysts, will lead to the secession of the south from northern Sudan - giving birth to Africa's 54th state - which they say was an emotional element, especially for the Southern Sudanese who feel they have been marginalised.

But analysts have also warned that building a new state, won't come easy, bearing in mind the unresolved issue of Abyei region, which remains unsolved.

Emmanuel Kisiangani, a senior researcher with the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), says other key challenges likely to face the new state include demarcating final borders, resolving citizenship issues, Islamic and Christian fundamentalists and building a framework for economic cooperation.

Managing the division of revenue from oil, most of which is currently extracted from fields in the South, but refined and pumped through pipelines crossing the North for export via Port Sudan on the Red Sea, would also pose a problem for the new state and its government.

Kisiangani says building an emerging state like independent south Sudan will demand the government to involve reciprocal relations between a state that delivers services for its people and social and political group who constructively engage with their state.

"This stage of infancy of South Sudan state requires collective efforts by all South Sudanese to come together and chart their way forward for an independent and stable south Sudan state, it is not a ruling party agenda alone as few believe so. But the responsibility for coming together lies with the government of independent south Sudan."

He explains that in stable, contemporary states, people expect certain benefits from the state to be provided on an inclusive basis, including security, justice, enabling conditions for the pursuit of economic livelihoods, as well as public services such as education and health care.

When voting started on Sunday, jubilant voters had flooded polling stations, waiting for what many dubbed a historic moment for Sudan.

But while women danced and sang slogans of "Freedom is burning", tensions remained high in the border region of Abyei region, where most of Sudan's oil depots are located.

Abyei remains the most contentious sticking point between north and south following a two-decade civil war that left some 2 million people dead.

Unlike the rest of the south, Abyei population is a mix of Arabs and Africans and its residents are split over the issue of separation from Khartoum.

Its residents were supposed to vote on a referendum to determine the disposition of their town at the same time as the rest of the south. But fuelled by their conflicting interests, they could not agree on how to run the poll, and so it did not take place.

Over 30 people have been reported to have been killed in tribal clashes, since the referendum started. Kisiangani said this was an indication that the breakaway of the south from the north is not a guarantee that fighting in the south will come to an end as the region still faces ethnic tensions.

Although there have been fears that the tension and violence can spark a new war, an analyst at the Institute for Global Dialogue believes that there is a lot at stake.

Programme director for Africa at the institution, Siphamandla Zondi, says in spite of their differences, there are many ties that bind their closely integrated societies together.

He said at the end it will depend on how the "the north responds to the birth of a new state, and how the south organises itself - in a way that it does not become an ache of instability in itself."

Another reason is that there is a price tag to war. A recent report by European and African economic experts estimated that another bloody conflict between the two former foes would cost $100 billion.

If oil production were to shut down at the outbreak of war, Sudan would immediately lose 10-20 percent of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP), equivalent to $6.5-13 billion in 2011, the report said.

In its 54-year history, Sudan has suffered from civil war between the north and south for 39 years. Some 200,000 south Sudanese were kidnapped into slavery. Two million Sudanese have died in the wars. Four million have become refugees.

But this time around, Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir who has been indicted on charges of genocide and crimes against humanity and genocide in Darfur, has extended an olive branch.

Last week he visited South Sudan's capital city Juba and pledged to support the referendum's results.

Media reports from that country quoted him as saying: "I am going to celebrate your decision, even if your decision is secession. Even after the southern state is born, we are ready in the Khartoum government to offer any technical or logistical support and training or advice - we are ready to help."

Zondi welcomed al-Bashir's efforts, saying it was a sign that they want to do away with the old age tensions.

However, both Zondi and Kisiangani caution, the north stood to lose oil resources should voting be in favour of secession. In this light, he called for the finalisation of all the outstanding issues.

Regardless of the outcome of the referendum, they say, the leaders in both the North and South must demonstrate a serious commitment to building genuine democracies.

The vote is off to a good start, with over 60 percent of the registered voters reported to have turned up at voting stations.

But in July- when the results are expected- is long off. The international community cannot afford to rest until north and south have signed the papers to make the divorce official and equitable.

After the referendum, both Zondi and Kisiangani say the international community should continue to help the Sudanese to build lasting peace and prosperity in the region.