Pretoria - With the conclusion of voting in the referendum for the self-determination of Southern Sudan having recently been declared free, fair and credible by the African Union (AU), President Jacob Zuma and AU leaders go to this week's AU summit in Ethiopia faced with yet another year of crisis as the political stalemate continues to wreak havoc in Cote d'Ivoire. Chris Bathembu reports.
The November election dispute between political rivals Laurent Gbagbo and Alassane Ouattara has led to thousands of Ivoirians fleeing their country in the past weeks to neighboring Liberia while United Nations (UN) officials worked around the clock to aid refugees.
As tensions seemed to be on the rise this week between supporters of both men, analysts have warned if a decisive decision is not taken soon to resolve the deadlock, the crisis could degenerate into an all-out violence last seen in Kenya two years ago.
But with the European Union (EU) UN and the AU all coming out in support of Outtara, some say it is unlikely that a compromise, as proposed by President Zuma last week, will be reached soon. Outtara, who is widely believed to have polled more votes in the November election, has also received backing from the west with a US official describing Gbagbo's actions as "a threat to democracy".
Independent political analyst Stephen Friedman says that while the AU also wants a quick solution to the Cote d'Ivoire crisis, the leaders were likely to stick to their position on Outtara.
"The African leaders have taken a position on this matter by endorsing a man who is believed to have won the election...he is a legitimate president and must therefore take office. We can't always have people in Africa who use the army to win power and the AU is aware of that," he says.
He believes that despite the complexity of the Ivorian matter, it's was clear that the debate at the summit will not only be about the AU position but what action should be taken against Gbabo.
"I think the AU has made it clear that it wants to see the legitimate winner being declared as president and that is a position that will be supported by the UN."
Both Zuma and Ugandan leader Yoweri Museveni have demanded a quick political solution to the crisis that will include both leaders. Some within the AU, including Zuma, are said to be anxious to ensure that the developments in the West African country do not translate into similar violent scenes that claimed more than 1000 lives in Kenya and neighboring Sierra Leone.
The meeting in Addis Ababa will also discuss the report by Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga who has been serving as an AU envoy in Cote d'Ivoire following the departure of former President Thabo Mbeki, who was tasked by the AU to mediate between the parties. Mbeki has since called for a workable solution to the end the debacle. Having taken part in mediation efforts in Zimbabwe and Sudan, Mbeki is believed to be equally concerned with ensuring the continued stability in the region.
Unisa's Centre for African Renaissance Director Professor Shadrack Guto also agrees that there is a need for a negotiated settlement to bring about stability in Cote d'Ivoire.
"We clearly need a solution but one that does not encourage people to steal elections. We have to be careful about that. From the theme of the summit which speaks about shared values you can tell that the issue of democracy and credible election will be discussed extensively so it's unfortunate that we find ourselves in this crisis," Guto says.
While the Cote d'Ivoire situation is likely to top the agenda, the 53-member states summit will also be discussing other pressing issues focusing on the continent's developmental issues, including progress on the latest referendum that split Sudan into two countries.
The summit which takes place under the theme 'Towards Greater Unity and Integration through Shared Values', is also expected to consider the report of the Peace and Security Council and matters involving the UN Reforms.
South Africa will also table the proposal on Women as a Resource in Sustainable Development and Economic Growth in Africa to ensure that African Union member states continue to support women empowerment and emancipation through structures such as the Pan African Women's Organisation (PAWO).
