Pretoria – The Congress of the People and IFP are likely to be the biggest losers in the 2014 General Election and Julius Malema’s Economic Freedom Fighters may become the official opposition in few of the country’s provinces, a political analyst is predicting.
Nationally, the ANC is leading the race with over three million votes, followed by the DA with over a million votes and the Economic Freedom Fighters at more than 200 000.
Indications are that the DA will keep the Western Cape with an increased majority. Already the DA has more than 800 000 votes in the Western Cape compared to the ANC which was just over 403 000.
The real surprise is the newcomer, the EFF, which is third in many provinces except for KwaZulu-Natal where the National Freedom Party and IFP are battling it out for a third place after the ANC and DA.
Independent political analyst Professor Tinyiko Maluleke told SAnews what was interesting about the EFF was that it had a presence in all provinces. This was good news for a party that was formed eight months before the elections.
By 8:30am, calculations showed that the EFF had already secured four seats in the National Assembly and they should have more in the provinces.
“Indications are that the EFF might become the official opposition in Limpopo province where they are coming third for now and I think they will have a lot more seats there because the threshold to secure a seat at provincial level is lower.”
The 2009 elections saw the ANC, DA and COPE dominating nationally, but the picture has changed with EFF replacing COPE. It appears that COPE will not go anywhere near the 1.3 million votes it received five years ago.
While it is still early on, it is expected that in Limpopo it will be firstly ANC, then EFF and the DA and this picture is likely to upset Helen Zille’s DA party, which has been an official opposition in that province for a number of years.
In Gauteng, it is still not clear. There is about 50 000 votes between the ANC and DA, according to the count that has been done so far, but the ANC is leading.
“I think we need to watch Gauteng very carefully because an interesting picture might emerge there,” Maluleke said.
Maluleke also noted that Agang has done dismally so far - struggling to even approach 500 votes in the Free State. The party will be lucky to get one seat in the National Assembly.
The Eastern Cape, where COPE has been the official opposition since 2009, looks set to go to the ANC, with the DA reclaiming its opposition status there. Already the ANC is approaching a million votes in that province. – SAnews.gov.za
