Pretoria - Libya's leader, Muammar Gaddafi's rule, seems to be hanging by a thread. The wave of revolts that have engulfed North Africa in recent weeks, has now thrown the region's biggest oil power into turmoil, threatening to end Gaddafi's 41 years in power.
As the unrest enters the fourteenth day, the country's dictator shows no indication of following his neighbours' quiet departures.
Inspired by the recent uprisings that swept through Tunisia and Egypt and forced their leaders to step down, thousands of Libyans have also started a string of protests against Gaddafi with protesters in the country's cities Tripoli, Al-Bayada, Ajdabiya, Darnah, and Tobruk having ransacked and set the government buildings on fire.
The eastern parts of Libya such as Benghazi - the country's second largest city - are totally free from Gaddafi's control with popular revolutionary committees managing it.
Better know as "Brother Leader", Gaddafi, who came to power by a coup d'etat, made a bizarre statement recently blaming Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda for giving "hallucinogenic" drugs to Libyan youth in their coffee to get them to incite the unrest - this showing how far he is willing to go in an effort to stay in power.
Armed militiamen and foreign mercenaries have reportedly been shooting at protesters, also using anti-aircraft guns against crowds. By last week, human rights groups had reported that more than 1000 people had been killed since violence first erupted.
As part of what has been called his desperate attempt to cling to power, the Colonel also had his son, Saif al-Islam, last week deliver a speech that attempted both to threaten and to calm people, saying the army would enforce security at any price to put down one of the bloodiest revolts ever to convulse the Arab world.
"What the Libyan nation is going through has opened the door to all options, and now the signs of civil war and foreign interference have started," the young Gaddafi reportedly said in a television interview, adding that they will "keep fighting until the last man standing, even to the last woman standing."
The United Nations Security Council voted for tough restrictions against Gaddafi. The Security Council measures - which include an arms embargo, asset freeze, and travel bans for Gadhafi and members of his family and associates - also referred the situation to the International Criminal Court.
On Sunday, the extravagant leader criticised this resolution saying council members "took a decision based on media reports that are based abroad." He added, "If the Security Council wants to know about something, they should have sent a fact-finding committee."
An analyst, who BuaNews spoke to about the unrest, says the situation is likely to be a bloody revolution.
Head of governance of Africa's Resources Programme at the South African Institute for International Relations, Kathryn Sturman, says the situation in Libya is different from Egypt and Tunisia in two respects.
First, is the ruthless personality of Libya's leader, Muammar Gaddafi. She says unlike former Tunisian president, Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali and former Egyptian president, Hosni Mubarak, Gaddafi is unlikely to respond rationally to popular pressure to step down.
Secondly, Sturman explains that Libya's oil wealth raises the stakes of this political conflict far higher than in Tunisia or Egypt, which export comparatively little oil.
"Libya is Africa's oil giant, with 44.3 billion barrels of proven reserves in 2010, compared with 3.7 billion barrels in Egypt and less than a billion in Tunisia.
"Global oil prices are rocketing and the energy security of European Union (EU) countries, such as Italy, France, Germany and Spain will be threatened. Around 80 percent of Libyan oil exports are to Europe, 10 percent to China and five percent to the United States," she details.
Unlike Egypt, Sturman says Libya has a small population, which has allowed Gaddafi to buy support through patronage. Oil revenues have also been used to build up military power and keep control.
This, Sturnam, says is called the 'repression effect' by analysts of the negative relationship between oil and democracy.
"There is certainly strong momentum for change building in Libya, but given the force mustered against a small number of civilians, it will be a much greater struggle to topple Gaddafi than the leaders of Tunisia and Egypt," explains Sturman - adding that the loyalty of the army will be the deciding factor.
"The role of the military is likely to be different in Libya, with a less professional army than in Egypt and greater allegiance to a charismatic leader. The standing of the military in the eyes of civilians also proved to be an important factor in Egypt. The Libyan army compromised whatever goodwill they might have had when they opened fire."
Although Gaddafi's personal lack of corruption and political idiosyncrasy has earned him grudging popular respect, despite the brutality of his regime-the tribalism- however- is still very much a reality in Libya.
Many Libyans continue to identify themselves as belonging to a tribe. This can have dyer consequences for a post Gaddafi era- which Sturnam says is not easy to predict at this point.
Another sticking point is the issue of a lack of government institutions - as its congress of 760 delegates is a feeble excuse for a parliament.
The Libyan "constitution's" principles are based on Gadhafi's "Green Book." The country has no legal parties, not even a strong Islamic movement.
This is compounded by the country's complicated tribal structure in which every large tribe has representatives in the army and government corporations. Some tribes have been embroiled in rivalries for generations, as reflected in the attempted coup against Gaddafi in 1993.
Sturman says the situation in Libya is nothing like that of Egypt or Tunisia, where functioning party, military and civilian institutions were in place. These she says were able to go into action immediately to run each state according to its constitution.
If the protesters topple the self-styled "King of Kings"- which is likely - Sturman warns that Libyans must guard against a dangerous power vacuum, which would see various groups such as the tribes, army, Islamist and liberals vie for power. This she says can only turn Libya into another Somalia.
But countries like US say they are ready and prepared to offer any kind of assistance to Libyans as they set up a transitional body.
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton echoed the calls of world leaders, including President Barack Obama, for him to quit.
"We are just at the beginning of what will Gaddafi do," Clinton said.
"First we have to see the end of his regime and with no further bloodshed," she continued, noting Washington is eager for his ousting "as soon as possible." "We want him to leave."
Similar statements have been heard from Libya's ambassador to South Africa, Abdallah Alzubedi, who on Monday called on Gaddafi to "do the right thing for the people of Libya."
Alzubedi's worst fear was that bloodshed would continue.
